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Excellent option selection with 68 days to expiry providing adequate time value, and the $220 strike is only $6.92 OTM from current underlying price of $213.08
Develop a clear exit plan with specific profit-taking levels and time-based exit criteria rather than holding without defined targets
Key Levels: Entry $9.57, Current $12.975, BE $229.57, Strike $220, TP1 $225
R:R 1:1.8 Max Loss: Premium paid: $957 (1 contract x $9.57 x 100)
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Portfolio shows strong long bias with $68,115 notional exposure and no hedging positions. Three options positions (UPST, AMZN, NFLX) have expiries within 93 days, creating time decay risk concentration.
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High confidence due to textbook H&S completion with volume confirmation, multiple indicator alignment, and clear measured move target. Score reduced slightly due to oversold RSI suggesting potential near-term bounce risk and proximity to long-term SMA200 support.
The completed H&S pattern with confirmed neckline breakdown, combined with strong bearish momentum indicators and elevated volume, creates a high-probability bearish setup. All major SMAs are now acting as resistance.
On any bounce toward the $600-607 resistance zone (former neckline support), or on continuation below $580 with volume
A reclaim and hold above $607.05 would invalidate the H&S breakdown and suggest false breakout
Entry $600, SL $608, TP $565 — risking $8 for $35 = 1:4.4 favorable risk/reward
2-4 weeks for the measured move target to be reached
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.
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